Gauteng’s Heavy Summer Rainfall: What’s Behind It In 2025/26?
Gauteng is experiencing high rainfall in the 2025/26 summer primarily due to weak La Niña conditions persisting through the season, which brings above-normal rainfall to South Africa's interior. This is enhanced by warmer sea temperatures and climate change, leading to more frequent thunderstorms and flood risks.
Key Reasons for the High Rainfall:
Weak La Niña Persistence: The tropical Pacific Ocean is in a weak La Niña phase, which typically shifts atmospheric patterns to favour increased rainfall across South Africa, particularly in the north-eastern interior including Gauteng.
Atmospheric Conditions: The climate pattern is causing a prolonged, wet summer with frequent afternoon thunderstorms expected to continue through January and February 2026.
Climate Change & Warmer Oceans: Warmer water in the Mozambique Channel and generally warmer atmospheric conditions - driven by climate change - allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, resulting in heavier, more intense rainfall events and increased flood risks.
Regional Impact: The high rainfall is impacting several provinces, including Gauteng, Limpopo, and Mpumalanga, raising dam levels and increasing the risk of flash floods.
Pretoria and surrounding areas in Gauteng experienced significant damages due to severe weather, including heavy rainfall, flooding, and violent hailstorms, during the early stages of the 2025/26 summer season. Severe thunderstorms in late November and early December 2025 caused widespread havoc in areas such as Pretoria North, Atteridgeville, and Centurion.
Damage Reported in Pretoria for the 2025/26 Summer Season:
Hailstorm Damage (Nov/Dec 2025): A violent hailstorm around 30 November – 1 December 2025, caused extensive damage, with residents reporting smashed windows, collapsed roofs, and ruined furniture in Pretoria North, Sinoville, and Atteridgeville. Some areas were covered in thick, icy, "snow-like" conditions that blocked driveways and destroyed boundary walls.
Flooding: Heavy rainfall caused the Hennops River to overflow, resulting in flooding in Centurion and parts of Pretoria.
Infrastructure Impact: Severe winds and rain brought down trees, branches, and power cables, causing localized structural damage.
Persistent Threats: Following the initial damage, high-level warnings (Level 4) for further severe thunderstorms and potential flooding were issued for Gauteng throughout December 2025.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) confirmed that these storms were part of a "wetter-than-normal" summer pattern, with some residents reporting that these events occurred with little warning.
